The U.S. economy is still pulling in two different directions. Manufacturing remains weak, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI around 48 in December, another month below the line that separates growth from contraction. PMI readings are straightforward: numbers above 50 mean activity is generally growing, while numbers below 50 mean it’s shrinking. Factory managers continue to report soft demand, fewer new orders, and ongoing efforts to burn off inventory rather than invest in new capacity. There’s little sign yet that manufacturing has turned the corner.
Services, however, are doing much better. The ISM Services PMI rose to 54.4, showing steady growth supported by consumer spending and business demand. Inflation is cooling, but unevenly—goods prices have eased, while services prices remain sticky. The labor market is slowing, but in an orderly way: hiring has cooled, job openings are down, and wage growth is easing, without a sharp rise in layoffs.
Technology investment stands out as one of the few areas where spending still has momentum, particularly around AI and the data infrastructure that supports it. Real investment in data centers and information-processing equipment is growing at roughly a 10–15% year-over-year pace, compared with low-single-digit growth for overall nonresidential capital spending.
Data-center construction is running at more than twice its pre-pandemic level, and information-processing equipment now makes up nearly half of all equipment investment, up from about one-third a decade ago. Large cloud and platform companies continue to guide toward double-digit annual capex growth, with most of that spending directed toward servers, networking gear, and storage tied to AI workloads. This investment is concentrated among large firms with strong balance sheets and long planning horizons. It’s less about quick productivity wins and more about building durable capacity—compute, storage, and data pipelines—that will be used over many years. That makes this cycle steadier than past tech booms, though for now it’s helping stabilize growth at the margin rather than push it materially higher.
For mid-market and lower-market private equity, this environment means fewer easy wins and more focus on fundamentals. Slower growth makes it harder to lean on volume growth or leverage to drive returns, especially in manufacturing-linked businesses where demand and margins remain under pressure. Service-oriented companies with recurring revenue, stable customers, and limited capital needs are holding up better and continue to attract most of the interest.
Deal activity is happening, but it’s slower and more selective, with fewer auction processes and more negotiated transactions. Value creation is coming more from operational work—pricing discipline, cost control, and working-capital management—than from financial engineering, and exit timelines are stretching as sponsors wait for clearer signals on rates and growth.
Monetary policy remains the main source of uncertainty. After December’s cut, the federal funds rate now sits at 3.50%–3.75%, and markets expect further easing later this year if inflation continues to cool and the labor market softens further. For now, the Fed appears content to pause, balancing still-elevated services inflation against ongoing weakness in manufacturing. Financial conditions are supportive enough to keep the economy moving, but uncertainty around the timing and pace of future cuts is keeping both markets and dealmakers cautious. Looking ahead to the next quarter, growth is likely to slow modestly rather than pick up, with services continuing to carry the economy and manufacturing remaining a drag.
Put simply, the economy is holding up better than feared. Services are doing most of the work, inflation is easing, and while manufacturing is still soft, the bigger picture looks steady rather than strained. The first quarter should tell us how long that balance can hold.


Middle-market-focused McCarthy Capital has rebranded as M-One Capital. The Omaha-based firm’s new name reflects its ongoing focus on backing founder- and management-led businesses, while signaling a broader investment approach across sectors and regions.

“Our rebranding honors our legacy and reflects the significant evolution we’ve experienced over the past decade,” said Patrick Duffy, the president and managing partner of M-One Capital. “M-One Capital represents our expanded scale, strategic growth and unwavering commitment to integrity, rigor, relationships and results. While our new brand better aligns with our current organization, we remain focused on our mission of being a value-added partner to entrepreneurs and families in an effort to drive long-term growth and success.”
PSP Investments, one of Canada’s largest pension investment managers, has reported a 12.6% one-year net return for its fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. According to PSP, its results were driven by strong performances across infrastructure, private equity, public market equities, and credit investments.
In the current environment, leadership is increasingly being pressured to react to market turbulence. One significant result of that is that we’re seeing a heightened need for a project management framework.
Private equity firms that are invested in or are looking to expand a healthcare rollup will often struggle to integrate best practices and standardize execution. This leaves valuable margin dollars on the table. Firms are often working with technical experts, such as physician-owned businesses, where resistance to standardization is common. There is an added complexity in that the operations are dealing with people’s lives. There are many risks and operational challenges surrounding this type of business.
Financial service organizations, such as insurance companies and credit unions, are fundamentally about customer service. Success often hinges on whether customers feel supported and understood. While local staff often go above and beyond to provide excellent service, this dedication can lead to inconsistent practices across different branches, making it difficult for corporate offices to standardize processes and measure performance accurately.
Carpedia International is a global operational improvement consultancy that partners with organizations across various industries to help them achieve sustainable performance enhancements. By focusing on aligning corporate strategy with day-to-day operations, Carpedia delivers customized solutions that drive measurable improvements in productivity, profitability, and organizational culture. The firm utilizes a hands-on approach, working closely with clients to identify inefficiencies, implement best practices, and ensure long-term success through continuous improvement and accountability.
rivate equity general partners (GPs) are incredibly busy, although M&A volume might suggest sponsors aren’t as active as they were in 2021 and 2022. Their focus, however, has been on efforts to accelerate and enhance value creation within their existing portfolios.
